JTB has forecasted that Japanese travelers are expected to increase by 0.2% year on year to record-high 30.6 million in total in the 2015-2016 New Year holiday period (December 23 2015 to January 3 2016). While Japanese overseas travelers may reduce by 4.3% to 628,000, travelers in Japan may increase by 0.3% to record-high 30 million.
The forecast is based on airlines’ booking status, JTB Group’s booking status, the current market trend and questionnaires to 1,200 15 to 79 years old males and females nationwide. The survey was conducted in the period from November 3 to 15 2015.
The forecast also shows that travel consumption is expected to increase by 5.4% to 1,160.8 billion JPN in total, which consist of 136.2 billion JPN for overseas travels (-6.5%) and 1,024.6 billion JPN (+7.2%). The average budgets per traveler are estimated at 217,000 JPN for an overseas travel (-2.3%) and 34,200 JPN for a travel in Japan (+7.0%).
The downturn in the overseas travel market may result from not-so-good holiday sequences in the period, anxiety about global instability and the continuous weak yen trend, according to JTB.
The booking status of LOOK JTB, the overseas package tour brand, finds that the peak days for departures will be December 23 for long-haul destinations and December 29 and 30 for short-haul destinations, and the peak day for returns will be January 2 and 3.
By destination, popularities of Taiwan and Hawaii are stable, and bookings for Hong Kong improved. Also, bookings for Singapore celebrating the 50th anniversary of its birth increased well.
The followings are estimated travelers by destination
Korea = 75,000 (-15.7%)
China = 88,000 (unchanged)
Hong Kong = 33,000 (+10%)
Taiwan = 63,000 (+1.6%)
Thailand = 37,000 (-2.6%)
Singapore = 32,000 (+3.2%)
Indonesia = 13,000 (-7.1%)
Malaysia = 15,000 (-6.3%)
Others in Asia = 45,000 (unchanged)
Asia in total= 401,000 (-2.9%)
U.S. mainland = 48,000 (-4.0%)
Canada = 4,000 (unchanged)
North America in total = 52,000 (-3.7%)
Hawaii = 59,000 (+1.7%)
Guam/Saipan = 32,000 (-13.5%)
Europe in total = 51,000 (-16.4%)
Australia = 13,000 (unchanged)
New Zealand = 3,000 (unchanged)
South Pacific = 7,000 (unchanged)
Others (Middle East, Africa and Latin America) = 10,000 (unchanged)
In the travel in Japan market, an itinerary of two days and one night was the most popular with s share of 32.3% (-3.1 points), followed by three days and two nights with a share of 30.4% (-1.2 points). It is remarkable that a share of four days and three nights was up 3.1 points to 16.4%.
As far as where to stay is concerned, the highest share was found in parent’s home (47.5%), and a share of ryokan or hotel was up 6.8 points to 44.9%. JTB has analyzed that traveling longer and spending more money on ryokan or hotel are preferred in this coming New Year holidays.
The booking status of Ace JTB, the travel in Japan package tour brand, finds that the peak day for departures will be December 31, followed by December 30.
By destination, popularity of Hokuriku was still high, boosted by open of the Hokuriku Shinkansen. Also, Osaka, Kyoto or Hokkaido was preferred.