The latest Mizuho Research Institute’s report on shortage of lodgings in Japan shows that shortage of lodgings in Tokyo will substantially be resolved by open of new hotels by 2020, and the same trend will be found in Tokai, Kyushu and Okinawa.
On the contrary, the Institute has forecasted that lodgings in Osaka will still run short despite open of new hotels, and said that a new vacation rental rule, which is expected to be legislated in this spring, may be one of the opportunities for Osaka to resolve the lodging shortage issue.
The report is based on nine sorts of scenarios for supply-demand balances of Japanese travelers and international visitors by region, supposing upward demand, downward demand and standard demand for Japanese travelers and upward demand, standard demand and decentralization demand for international visitors. Standard demand supposes indefinite numbers unchanged from 2015, upward and downward demands changes of indefinite numbers for guest nights and travel frequencies.
As a result, Tokyo will have 900 extra rooms on the standard demand criteria and extra rooms on four out of nine scenarios. Osaka, however, will be short of supplies on all of the scenarios.
The table below shows supply-demand balance of hotels in 2020 by region:
The report also includes forecasts of 28 million international visitors (+16%) and their spending in Japan of 4.4 trillion JPY (+18.2%) in 2017. Total spending will be boosted by an increase in visitors despite reduction of spending per capita, according to the Institute.