JTB has forecasted that Japanese travelers are expected to increase 1.2% year on year to record-high 30,628,000 in total in this coming New Year holiday period (December 23 2018 to January 3 2019). The estimated total breaks down into record-high 734,000 overseas travelers (+4.3%) and 29,894,000 domestic travelers (+1.1%).
JTB has also forecasted total travel consumption of 1,144 billion JPY (+5.1%), which consist of 157.1 billion JPY for overseas travel (+8.3%) and 986.5 billion JPY (+4.6%) for domestic travel. The average travel expenses are 214,000 JPY an overseas traveler (+3.9%) and 33,000 JPY a domestic traveler (+3.4%). The average expense for overseas travel improves from year-on-year reduction last year to year-on-year growth this year. The average travel days are 3.8, 0.2 more days than a year earlier.
The growth trend is boosted by longer holidays, possibly nine holidays in a row during the period, than a year ago, and travel demand is expected to increase even in Christmas holidays from December 22 to 24. Also, JTB says that economic condition of Japan is gently improving as winter bonus is up 3.5% on average, the first increase in the past two years.
The questionnaire survey by JTB find that the ratio of answers of ‘nothing change’ in this coming New Year reduces from about 40% a year ago to about 30%. Answers of ‘travel to longer-haul destination than a year ago’ are down 1.1 points to 4.9%, but answers of ‘more travel days than a year ago) are up 0.7 points to 4.9%, which is higher than 1.1% of ‘fewer travel days than a year ago.’
Answers of ‘more income than a year ago’ are up 1.7 points to 13.7%, which is higher than 8.7% of ‘less income than a year ago.’ Answers of ‘hope to increase spending on travel in the next year’ is up 1.9% to 15.1%.
The busiest departure days for overseas travel are forecasted on December 29 and 30 2018. By destination, travelers are expected to be 487,000 for Asia (+5.4%), 56,000 for North America (unchanged), 64,000 for Hawaii (+1.6%), 57,000 for Europe (+5.6%), 29,000 for Oceania and South Pacific (+3.6%), 28,000 for Guam and Saipan (-3.4%) and 13,000 for others in total (+8.3%).
The busiest departure days for domestic travel will be December 29 and 30 2018. 3 days 2 nights travelers reduce, while 4 days 3 nights and 6 days 5 nights travelers increase. Regarding accommodation types used in travel, the ratios are up 2.2 points to 30.6% for hotel and 0.4 points to 15.6% for ryokan.
The most popular transportation is private car wit the ratio of 65.9%, and the ratios are up 4.3 points to 7.5% for highway bus and 0.5 points to 1.7% for LCC.